30 August 2011
A new strain of bird flu (H5N1 avian influenza) is spreading through Asia and poses "unpredictable risks to human health", according to the United Nations.
The UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) has issued a statement alerting countries to the emergence of the mutant strain (known as H5N1-2.3.2.1) in both China and Vietnam.
It was "apparently able to sidestep the defences provided by existing [veterinary] vaccines" and may cause a "flare-up of H5N1 this [northern hemisphere] autumn and winter ... with people unexpectedly finding the virus in their backyard" (UN FAO, online 29 Aug 2011).
"The countries where H5N1 is still firmly entrenched – Bangladesh, China, Egypt, India, Indonesia, and Vietnam – are likely to face the biggest problems, but no country should consider itself safe," the FAO advised.
Since 2003, H5N1 has killed or forced the culling of more than 400 million domestic poultry. The FAO said outbreaks in bird populations peaked in 2006, then declined, but had risen progressively since 2008.
Figures from the WHO show there have been 565 confirmed cases of H5N1 infection in humans, leading to 331 deaths. Indonesia leads with 178 human cases and 146 deaths, followed by Egypt (151 cases, 52 deaths) and Vietnam (119 cases, 59 deaths).
So far in 2011 there have been 49 cases and 25 deaths globally – exceeding the figures for all of 2010 (48 cases, 24 deaths) (WHO, online 19 Aug 2011).
While there have been no H5N1 cases in Australia, Burnett Institute virologist, Emeritus Professor Greg Tannock, said: "It is right to keep a watching brief on this. Our geographic isolation is one of our biggest protectors."
He added that the new variant appeared more able to spread among birds, and implications for the risk to humans remained unclear.
Last Reviewed: 02 September 2011